US Mid Term Elections- A Beautiful Blue Wave

If anyone would have told you 4 months ago that the Democrats were going to win the Senate, the House of Representatives and have a majority of governors in the USA after November the 7th they would have called you a hippie idealist who was still shell-shocked from their time in Vietnam.

Well one of the reasons (and believe me it is no excuse) for me not blogging was because I placed much attention and focus on the Mid-term elections. I had never really followed the mid-terms closely.

The elections were supposed to be a referendum on President Bush and the War in Iraq. I do believe that this is true, but one can not rule out regional factors.

For the Democrats to win the Senate they had to gain an additional 6 senate Senates. I would like to use the 7 seats they targeted as an example of how national and/ or regional factors were at play.

Rhode Island- If I were to ever vote for a Republican Lincoln Chafee would have been that guy, a big critic of Bush, of the war, fiercely independent and liberal. Even though Chafee had a great track record of being independent and delivering to the people of the Ocean State, the Rhode Islanders voted against Bush and not Chafee, resulting in Sheldon Whitehouse winning the seat for the Democrats. Chafee is now considering to leave the Republican party.

Ohio- Senaor Mike DeWine was on a hiding to nothing, like his colleague Chafee, DeWine had done little wrong, but other Republican office holders were linked to scandals and corruption cases, and although he was squeaky clean, the people in the Buckeye State were unhappy with the course of the war, but here it was more of a local issue, so much so that DeWine was thumped by a populist labour-orientated Democrat in Sherrod Brown. Let us not forget that Ohio was the state which effectively ruled out Kerry’s chances of winning back the White House

Pennsylvania- Although Pennsylvania has a strong record of being a Blue State, Senator Rick Santorum was possibly one of the most conservative Republican senators. In Pennsylvania it was all about national issues, Santorum, a senior senate leader for the Republicans was seen as a close ally of Bush. The people of they Keystone State dramatically rejected Santorum at the polls. However, as I said Pennsylvania is a blue state, but in the rural areas, there are many conservative people, and it might come as a surprise to some, but the new Senator Bob Casey, could be someone who is from the deep south, he is a social conservative. He is a new breed of Democrat. I will touch on this phenomenon a bit later.

Tennessee- The Republicans kept this a red state, although it was very close. This was probably the fiercest contest in the entire Senate race. It pitted the former mayor of Chattanooga and wealthy property developer Bob Corker (Republican) against a black Congressman Harold Ford Jnr. (Democrat). It was hard to distinguish who was more conservative in this race. Ford Jnr. shot one of his adverts in a church and played the faith card a lot. I do believe that Ford Jnr.’s ethnicity was a factor in this race, and that pockets of the Volunteer State were conservative enough to keep it Republican.




Having said that, Harold Ford Jnr, is a new kidn of Democrat but also a new superstar in the party, he might have lost here, but you will hear about Harold Ford Jnr,. again. He is one the best political orators I have seen in a long time.

Missouri- This was a fascinating race, this was the one race which was consistently neck and neck and where most pollsters were to afraid to stick their neck out. It saw young conservative Republican senator Jim Talent go up against Claire McCaskill, the state Auditor General. The Show Me State is traditionally a Red State, a different kind of national issue played up here…. Stem cell research. Talent was opposed and McCaskill was pro. Enter a famous actor and a famous radio host. Michael J Fox, who suffers from Parkinsons, was asked by McCaskill to run an advert calling for people to vote for McCaskill because she would advance the cause of stem cell research. It was a vivid gripping advert. Conservative radio show host Rush Limbaugh accused Fox of “ exaggerating “ and not having taken his medication.

This race went down to the wire and McCaskill won, here it was a National Issue, but not just Iraq but also stem cell research.

Montana- This race gave me many grey hairs, it also lead me to probably know every single county in this sparsely populated state.. Although it has a Democrat governor, it is still a red state. Here it was seasoned Republican Senator Conrad Burns, cowboy hat and all, up against Jon Tester, an environmentalist farmer up against each other. Big Sky Country produced a small victory for the Democrats. Here it was largely an issue of Burns being linked to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. No one would have ever given Tester a chance, but despite Burn’s record of looking after his state, the people of Montana thought that Burns was trying to bring Washington politics to Montana instead of taking Montana politics to Washington.

Virginia- Republican George Allen, who had previously been a governor and who was seeking re-election to the Senate was very popular and was (is) someone with presidential ambitions in 2008. A deeply religious man, a man who talks about God, family, entrepreneurship and patriotism was way ahead of the polls against former Reaganite Republican turned Democrat Jim Webb. Webb a military hawk and social conservative was never in this race. However, Allen committed gaffe after gaffe, using a racial slur against a Webb aide, denying his Jewish roots, it all went wrong for the boy wonder. However, Allen caught up in the polls and it all went down to the wire in the Dominion. In the end Webb won by a slither of votes, Allen could have asked for a recount but decided against it. Here it was local issues which cost the Republicans.

I must comment on Allen’s concession speech. He came out with his lovely wife and one of his children Brooke. He started off by thanking God a few times, he then thanked his wife and pulled her towards him and kissed her on both cheeks (he always does this), he then thanked Brookie, and took a football from Brookie and threw it to the crowd a few times and then he proceeded to concede, but also talk about patriotism, entrepreneurship, and God, he then threw the ball into the crowd again. Hilarious stuff.
In the main there was an over-riding national discontent with Bush, but let us not forget the local factors which definitely made the difference between the Republicans holding on and losing the senate.

A Quick Word on the House

In the House of Representatives, the Democrats won by such a large margin because of the war in Iraq, because of George W Bush, but also because of local factors such as corruption, moral corruption, there was the case of Mark Foley who is today in a rehabilitation centre seeking serious help for his improper relationship with a boy aide.

This moral corruption saw a staggering 1/3 of evangelists vote for the Democrats. The Evangelists are the backbone of the Republican base.

The Lie of the Land

We now have Nancy Pelosi, a latte liberal from San Francisco and fundraiser extraordinaire become the speaker of the House, she will have a largely liberal team in the senior positions and we have another liberal in Harry Reid from Nevada being the Majority Leader in the Senate. Before the elections, the Republicans controlled the Presidency, the Senate, The House and a majority of the governorships. After November the seventh, Bush has to live with a different political reality. I believe that he has to eat humble pie and as we have seen with the sacking of Secretary for Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, Bush will have to change certain policies. Call me an optimist, but I believe Bush might start caring about the L Word and I am not talking about the TV show, nor am I saying that Bush might become a liberal, but I do believe he will care about his legacy. I think the Democrats will be constructive in their relationship with him, but I think they will be able to pressure him.

He will want to end his failed presidency as someone who was bi-partisan and as some one who could work across party lines to get things done.

I hope the Democrats will use their power and influence to activate a different policy on Iraq, urgent action on the environment, ensure a lower gap between the haves and the have nots and get rid of the corruption which has plagued Republican run politics.

Lets hope the Blue Wave continues to 2008!


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Photos

New Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi celebrates victory
James Webb, new Senator for Virginia raising his sons army boots, his son is a soldier in Iraq at the moment. He always wore the boots while campaigning.
Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer raises New Montana Senator Jon Testers hand. Tester lost 3 fingers on his left hand in a farming accident. His Buzz Cut is the latest rage in Montana